LAST CHANCE TO JUMP SHIP AND DROP OUT
Should Joe Go? Options and Anxiety one year out before 2024
(Update Jul 21, 2024: It was not the last chance to jump ship and drop out, lmao)
(Update Jul 22, 2024: Probably Gonna be Kamala)
(Update Jul 24, 2024: Yeah, Kamala)
(Update Nov 9, 2024: Lmao)
Hey, y'all, There is less than one year before the 2024 election, and it's looking like we’re going to get almost a carbon copy repeat of 2020,
Incumbent President Joe Biden vs Former President Donald Trump. However, if you’re a Democrat, there’s one glaring problem: Joe Biden’s polling is (as of December 3rd, 2023) by all current measures… NOT GOOD!
In mid-November, the news agency Reuters, in their US presidential polling tracker, noted that “56% of Americans disapprove of the President,” which is the lowest Biden’s approval has fallen to since April. Young voters are sour on Biden over various issues regarding the current conflict in Israel/Palestine, housing, and climate.
Concerning the President personally, there’s no question that the general public thinks Joe Biden is old; he was the oldest president in the history of the United States when he was elected, and that will still be the case if he gets reelected. It’s not ageist to mention or be worried about this, and it's not ageist to note that Biden is slowing down. As the presidential election approaches, the Democratic Party faces a pivotal decision: should President Joe Biden spearhead their campaign again, or is it time to look for new leadership? Of course, the standard margin of error a year before the election is around ±6 points between the two leading candidates. Still, Biden could have one severe fall to the ground or have a Mitch McConnell-level freeze once, and that would be the end of any of his reelection hopes.
Joe Biden’s approval rating has never recovered since he authorized the US military’s pull out of Afghanistan on 30 August 2021. Regardless of how you personally feel about it, that action marked the end of his general approval and popularity over 50%. Throughout his term, President Joe Biden's administration has faced significant challenges in public opinion, particularly concerning the economy, climate, gas prices, immigration, and other critical issues influencing public perception from all sides of the political spectrum. Economically, the U.S. experienced mixed outcomes: there were signs of recovery post-pandemic, but increased inflation rates, peaking at a 40-year high, persisted as a significant concern. While aiding recovery, some economists criticized the American Rescue Plan for exacerbating inflation during a low supply period. GDP growth showed early promise but was followed by two-quarters of contraction, raising recession fears, though an official recession wasn't declared and was avoided in large part due to the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) and significant and successful pushes(incentives packages) increasing American job growth post-covid.
Public skepticism has extended to Biden's handling of critical issues. The majority of the American public expresses little confidence in his decisions on economic policy, immigration, and international crises, reflecting concerns over his effectiveness with Congress and in foreign policy, especially regarding China in right-wing circles and criticism towards his staunch support of Israel in many left-wing circles in Biden’s own party.
Biden's impact on the tone of national political debate is viewed negatively by a sizable portion of the population, with 39% believing he has changed it for the worse since taking office, according to Pew Research Center. These challenges, encompassing economic pressures and doubts about Biden's leadership effectiveness, have significantly shaped public perception, presenting hurdles for his administration as it approaches his 2024 election campaign.
This “electoral rut” may be something that may only be sticking to Biden and maybe not the rest of the Democratic Party. Notably, in a New York Times/Siena College poll, an unnamed, generic Democrat polled over 5 points higher than Biden does in a potential match-up against Donald Trump. (See below)
This poll isn’t just data; the significance of it is further emphasized by the Democratic Party's outstanding performance in the 2023 elections and referendums. Despite Biden’s declining approval ratings, Democrats have succeeded in various states, particularly in areas focusing on abortion rights post-Dobbs (Roe v. Wade overturning). Victories in midterms and special elections, as well as strong performances in races like the Ohio pro-abortion referendum, congressional races in Virginia, and Kentucky’s Gubernatorial Election, suggest that the party's platform remains resonant with voters against the Republican agenda even in red and swing states, independent of Biden's personal popularity.
Did not have this in the print artice but for emphasis here is a list of all of the elections that happened in november 2023, and note the states and the results:
U.S. House of Representatives Special Elections:
Virginia's 4th District: Democrat Jennifer McClellan won (margin not specified).
Rhode Island's 1st District: Democrat Gabe Amo won (margin not specified).
Utah's 2nd District: Republican Celeste Maloy won (margin not specified).
Gubernatorial Elections:
Kentucky: Democrat Andy Beshear was re-elected by a margin of 52.5% to 47.5%.
Louisiana: Republican Jeff Landry won with 51.6% of the vote.
Mississippi: Republican Tate Reeves was re-elected by a margin of 51.2% to 47.5%.
Attorney General Elections:
Kentucky: Republican Russell Coleman won by a margin of 58% to 42%.
Louisiana: Republican Liz Murrill won (margin not specified).
Mississippi: Republican Lynn Fitch was re-elected by a margin of 58.7% to 41.3%.
Secretary of State Elections:
Kentucky: Republican Michael Adams was re-elected by a margin of 60.6% to 39.3%.
Louisiana: Republican Nancy Landry won (margin not specified).
Mississippi: Republican Michael Watson was re-elected by a margin of 60.1% to 39.9%.
State Treasurer Elections:
Kentucky: Republican Mark Metcalf won by a margin of 57.2% to 42.8%.
Louisiana: Republican John Fleming won (margin not specified).
Mississippi: Republican David McRae was re-elected (margin not specified).
State Agriculture Commissioner Elections:
Kentucky: Republican Jonathan Shell won by a margin of 59.3% to 40.7%.
Louisiana: Republican Michael G. Strain was re-elected unopposed.
Mississippi: Republican Andy Gipson was re-elected by a margin of 58.4% to 41.6%.
State Supreme Court Elections:
Wisconsin: Janet Protasiewicz won by a margin of 11.02%.
Pennsylvania: Democrat Daniel McCaffery won by a margin of 6.02%.
State Legislative Elections:
The Democratic Party flipped control of Virginia's House of Delegates and retained the majority in Virginia's Senate. They also expanded their majority in New Jersey's lower house. The Republican Party strengthened its majorities in Mississippi and Louisiana legislatures (specific margins not provided).
Notable Mayoral Elections:
Jacksonville, Florida: Democrat Donna Deegan won (margin not specified).
Danbury, Connecticut: Democrat Roberto Alves won (margin not specified).
Evansville, Indiana: Democrat Stephanie Terry won (margin not specified).
Manchester, New Hampshire: Republican Jay Ruais won (margin not specified).
Spokane, Washington: Democrat Lisa Brown won (margin not specified).
Terre Haute, Indiana: Democrat Brandon Sakbun won (margin not specified).
Wichita, Kansas: Libertarian Lily Wu won (margin not specified).
Charleston, South Carolina: Republican William Cogswell won (margin not specified).
During the week before this article will be published, I conducted a very informal poll on about 50 [NAME OF MY UNIVERSITY] students about their opinions on our wise leader, Joe Biden. The significant majority of student respondents expressed that Biden was too old, with 88% answering “Yes” to the question, “Should Biden retire and let another Democrat run.” Even though most respondents indicated that they would still vote for Biden if he were on the ballot over a Republican, that doesn’t diminish the clear preference for another Democrat over Biden in the election, both nationally and on this campus. This poll, though extremely limited in scope, mirrors broader national sentiments and suggests a disconnect between Biden's personal appeal and the general support for the Democratic Party. The results imply that while the party's policies and stance on key issues like the economy and social rights resonate with voters, Biden as a figurehead may not be as effective in galvanizing support, especially among younger voters and some voters in key states over
the conflict in Palestinian(i.e., Michigan). This dichotomy poses a strategic dilemma for the party as it approaches the 2024 election.
Okay, so hypothetically, who do we run? And who will?
This really is the last chance(This being now(12/5/2033) for Biden to drop out, and I’m extremely skeptical that he will; if he does, it would immediately fire a starting gun to one of the fastest snap presidential primary elections in the Democratic Party’s history. There are three “main” people already running for president on the Democratic side against Joe Biden: Minnesota Representative Dean Philips, political commentator Cenk Uygur, and author Marianne Williamson; however, if Biden were to drop out, I would expect this list to become much more saturated, but here’s a few names of 3 US governors I hope and/or think would put their hat in the race.
Number 1: Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania, has garnered a favorable reception early in his term, with an approval rating stabilizing around 53%. Shapiro's strengths lie in his fresh approach to governance and his ability to not just appeal to voters in Pennsylvania but act on their behalf, especially in times of crisis that need swift disaster management, like in the case of the infrastructure failures causing the I-95 collapse, where he issued a disaster emergency proclamation and swiftly reopened the lanes, as well as his immediate pledges and orders protecting abortion rights after the Dobbs Decision. Pennsylvania is a pivotal swing state. Shapiro not only matched Biden’s performance in 2020 but also exceeded the President’s margins in his election to the Pennsylvania Governorship in 2022.
Number 2: Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, with a 56% approval rating, is noted for flipping every branch of Michigan's government blue during her two terms in the governor’s office of a decisive swing state in the last couple of elections. Her decisive actions, particularly during the pandemic, have resonated with the majority of her voters, positioning her as a potent Democratic contender on a national scale in a rising Midwest(This also applies to Shapiro).
In my opinion, Whitmer is the best one(Read the Ettingermentum article and scroll to the bottom).
“in 2018, when she first ran for Governor. On the ballot alongside her was a proposal for a constitutional amendment to hand power over redistricting from the Republican-controlled state legislature to an independent commission. The measure would win in a landslide, as would Whitmer; in a state that had voted for Trump just two years prior, she would win her race by nearly 10 points, the largest margin of victory of any Democrat in Michigan that year. While other Democratic candidates in similar races, from Stacey Abrams to Andrew Gillum, struggled to benefit at all from the blue wave, she did so with ease, not only matching but outright exceeding national shifts to the left. Even this early in her career, she had already set herself apart from the pack.”
Number 3: My governor from California, Gavin “Gruesome” Newsom, holds a 56% approval rating and is starting to be recognized for his increased national media presence, especially post-Dobbs, with things like his Sean Hannity interview and debate with the Republican Governor of Florida and hopeful Presidential candidate(lmao) Ron Desantis. His leadership in managing California's complex economy and harping on key social issues not just in his state but nationally marks him as a prominent figure in the Democratic Party with potential presidential appeal, despite his(let’s be real) “coastal elite” baggage as a Californian(a downside that isn’t present in either Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer).
The following section between the “_____________” was not in my article in the paper, but I am going to include it for this as some of my more honest opinions:
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Whitmer(YEAH!), Shapiro, and Gavin that people(me) float will run; it’s unlikely that any of those three and any “players” will run unless President Joe Biden himself doesn’t admit he’s seen his polling numbers against a guy who’s an ex-game show host and a political insurrectionist and make the call that it should be someone besides himself. Of those, There are a bunch of other democrats besides the three governors I mentioned in my article(this one kinda) about who/should consider running if Biden is out.
I’ll list some and give some quick thoughts:
Vice President Kamala Harris(D-CA)-No, 53% dissaproval(at a minimum)
Governor J.B. Pritzker (D-IL)- Yes, big boy, big guy, still a low performer
Governor Tim Walz (D-MN)- I like him ig
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) -We will get negative votes, laughably unqualified.
Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC)- We would actually win that state this time, worse Andy Beshear.
Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY)- He should run for President in 2028 and Win
(may write about him more at length later this month)
Governor Jared Polis (D-CO)- No.
Mayor Eric Adams (D-NY)- Turkey
I will also say that the DNC shat the bed on young voters on climate and on Palestine, regardless of how strongly you feel either way about it; just a matter of if they will end up choosing just to vote “against Republicans.”
Young people to Joe Biden: You betrayed us on climate change
The fact that the national DNC is actually spending money thinking that “Florida is in play” is honestly embarrassing; Joe Biden has lost a fuck ton of young voters for not supporting a ceasefire in Gaza, as well as most American Muslims in key states(like Michigan, which has been a decisive swing state in the last few elections) may not be voting for Trump now, but they’re certainly not voting for Biden. I expect that Biden’s approval rating to never reach post-afgan levels.
Though Joe Biden would probably win every swing state if he legalized weed in October of next year, lol
Quote from an Al Jazeera article:
“‘Not Trump’
Muslim Americans said they did not expect former President Donald Trump to treat their community any better if re-elected, but saw denying Biden votes as their only means to shape US policy.
“We’re not supporting Trump,” he said, adding the Muslim community would decide how to interview other candidates.
It remains to be seen whether Muslim voters would turn against Biden en masse, but small shifts in support could make a difference in states Biden won by narrow margins in 2020.
A recent survey revealed a significant decline in Biden’s backing among Arab Americans, dropping from a substantial majority in 2020 to just 17 percent.
This shift could have a crucial effect in states like Michigan, where Biden secured victory by 2.8 percentage points, and Arab Americans constitute 5 percent of the vote, according to the Arab American Institute.
Among the general public, opinion polls show most Americans back an end to Israel’s war in the besieged enclave.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/3/us-muslims-pledge-to-ditch-bide
Personally, I don’t want Joe Biden to Run, I am of the opinion that he should retire; as of right now, with the current field, I will flip a coin to see if I pick Cenk Uygur or Marianne Williamson for the DNC primary for climate & foreign policy, then just end up voting for Joe Biden for president in the general election(in California.)
However, if Joe Biden is the nominee, which will probably stay the case, I might decide on election day to vote Green as a joke to participate in making Joe Biden win the election, but while losing the popular vote(which is the funniest outcome)
^Only because I’m from California, and it’s gonna go blue anyway.
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Despite the challenges facing President Joe Biden, he still possesses some notable strengths, including “vast” experience(he was literally elected to the US Senate during the Nixon Administration, (God, he’s so old)) and parts of what could be perceived as a “good track record of leadership” during the latter half of the COVID-19 pandemic/Vaccine Rollout, and the 2022 global energy crises caused by the war in Ukraine. However, amidst shifting public opinion regarding his presidency, especially amongst young voters, the question of whether this unpopular president should still run is an extremely contentious one among the political class in government and media, but that’s not the case for the general public. The Democratic Party faces a critical decision balancing Biden's will to run and the “incumbent’s advantage” with the electorate's clear desire for change.
Please Retire Joe for the Good of the Republic.
Another great article! This election year is going to have a lot of surprises...I’m all in for Andy Beshear, if/when he jumps in (2028).